In the second round of the NCS playoffs, the No. 1 seed rarely losses.   In the last five years there have been thirty games in the six divisions between the No. 1 seed and the No. 8 or 9 and the No. 1 seed is 30-0.
Most of the games haven’t been close.   There was one close nail biter and that was in 2011 when in Division 2 Boys Montgomery defeated San Lorenzo 55-53.   No other game was decided by less than ten points.  Twelve of them were decided by over 30.
This is being written before Friday Night’s action and it is not to throw a wet blanket on the event.   Those are the facts.
The reason I am saying this is to show what the odds are for the No. 8 or 9 in the second round.  I am also saying that a No. 1 could be upset on Saturday.
I don’t usually make picks here.  In fact this might be the first one and I’m not even picking a winner.   The No. 1 who could be upset is Moreau Catholic in Division 4 and they are playing Willits.
Yes Willits again.
Maybe the homer is coming out in me.   Maybe it is because we have had Willits ranked No. 2 at this website, only behind Montgomery.
I am bucking a couple of trends here.   One is mentioned above on what No. 1 does in the second round.
The other is trend I am bucking is how NCL I teams has fared in Division 4.   They are there for the enjoyment of the rest of the Division and nothing else.   Since they started playing fulltime in the Division in 2010, they are 2-14.   That one win was by No. 6 Cloverdale who won a first round game and just missed in Round Two.   There have been some ugly scores along the way.  They shouldn’t be in Division 4 but it is the way it is.  The second win was by Willits in Round One.
It will take a special NCL I team to make a statement to compete in this Division.
Willits might be that team.   The No. 9 seed is the highest seed since that Cloverdale team.
They have a better record than anyone else in the division. They probably deserve to be hosting a game in this round.
They deserved better than a No. 9 seed.  We will see how much better.
SATURDAY SCHEDULE
DIVISION 4 BOYS
No. 7 Cardinal Newman (17-11) at No. 2 St. Patrick/St. Vincent (22-8)…7 pm
FIRST ROUND
Cardinal Newman 72 Lick Wilmerding 36
St. Patrick/St. Vincent 80 John Swett 37
Two teams that are in the NCS Division 4 playoffs yearly, but usually miss each other.   The last time they met St. Patrick/St. Vincent defeated Cardinal Newman 62-61 in OT in 2012.
Cardinal Newman hasn’t won a section title since 1993.  St. Patrick/St. Vincent hasn’t won one.
St. Patrick/St. Vincent finished 4-6 in the Tri-County Rock League.  All six teams in the league are playing in the second round of the NCS playoffs.
POWER RANKING COMPARSION:  St. Patrick-St. Vincent is ranked 19th in the section (all teams).  Cardinal Newman is at 35.
No. 9 Willits (25-2) at No. 1 Moreau Catholic (21-6)…7 pm
FIRST ROUND
Willits 52 Roseland University Prep 31
Moreau Catholic 94 Gateway 41
Have you heard enough about this game?
Moreau Catholic (from Hayward) finished second in the Mission Valley League, three games behind Newark Memorial who is the No. 2 seed in Division 2.
Moreau Catholic has made a nice recovery.  In 2009 and 2010 combined they won ten games.
POWER RANKINGS COMPARISON:  Moreau Catholic is ranked No. 17 in the North Coast Section (close to St. Patrick-St. Vincent).   Willits is No. 42.
DIVISION 4 GIRLS
No. 5 Cardinal Newman (23-6) at No. 4 Arcata (23-3)…7 pm
FIRST ROUND
Cardinal Newman 63 Cloverdale 38
Arcata 56 Roseland University Prep 33
Arcata won the Humboldt Del Norte League and as an eleven game winning streak.
Arcata has played one NBL team, beating Ukiah 44-32.
One of the losses was a league loss to Fortuna 49-46.  In the rematch they won 47-31.
POWER RANKING COMPARSION:  Arcata is ranked No. 13 in the North Coast Section.  Cardinal Newman is No. 11
DIVISION 5 GIRLS
No. 6 St. Vincent (23-6) at No. 3 St.Joseph-Notre Dame (15-12)…6:30
FIRST ROUND
St. Vincent 41 Sonoma Academy 24
St. Joseph-Notre Dame 52 China Central 20
St. Joseph-Notre Dame has won two of the last tree section titles.
POWER RANKING COMPARSION:  St. Joseph-Notre Dame is ranked 46 in the section.  St. Vincent is 48
DIVISION 6 BOYS
No. 8 Point Arena (18-7) at No. 1 CSD-Fremont (23-3)…8 pm
FIRST ROUND
Point Arena 71 Tomales 61
CSD-Fremont BYE
No. 5 Ferndale (9-17) at No. 4 Archbishop Hanna (23-4)…7 pm
FIRST ROUND
Ferndale 59 Mendocino 51
Archbishop Hanna 65 Laytonville 53
No. 7 St. Elizabeth (16-13) at No. 2 Rincon Valley Christian (22-8)…7 pm
FIRST ROUND
St. Elizabeth 66 Summerfield Waldorf37
Rincon Valley Christian 60 SF Waldorf 38
DIVISION 6 GIRLS
No. 8 Rio Lindo Adventist (16-7) at No. 1 Ferndale (20-7)…7 pm
FIRST ROUND
Rio Lindo Adventist 35 Laytonville 33
Ferndale BYE
No. 5 Rincon Valley Christian (14-12) at No. 4 CSD-Fremont (20-8)…6:30
FIRST ROUND
Rincon Valley Christian 40 El Sobrante Christian 34
CSD-Fremont 50 Anderson Valley 29
No. 6 Summerfield Waldorf (17-5) at No. 3 SF Waldorf (15-6)…8 pm
FIRST ROUND
Summerfield Waldorf 48 Contra Costa Christian 34
SF Waldorf 47 Mendocino 44
No. 7 Round Valley (14-5) at No. 2 St. Bernard Catholic (19-11)…8 pm
FIRST ROUND GAMES
Round Valley 63 Cornerstone Christian 39
St. Bernard Catholic 64 Point Arena 20
STATE COMMUNITY COLLEGE PLAYOFFS
SATURDAY
No. 14 Merritt (17-10) at No. 3 SRJC (19-8)…7 pm
My email address is jacpasquini@comcast.net