What is left is all about league play.   There is only one non-league game left in the 2014 high school football season.  The game is on October 10th when Sonoma Valley travels to Oakland and takes its shot at McClymonds.   That matchup didn’t work out to well for the last SCL team to travel there.
In the leagues we cover there are twenty seven teams, with eight each in NBL and NCL I, seven in the SCL and four more in the NCL II.
A week before the regular season we posted the top ten computer power rankings.  As we reach the midway point of the 2014 High School Football season here is how all twenty eight are listed.
The number next to it in parentheses is where they are in the YSN365.com rankings.
Below this are some notes and a little explanation of how the rankings work.
No.  1 Analy (1) (3-1)
No.  2 Cardinal Newman (4) (2-2)
No.  3 Windsor (2) (4-0)
No.  4 Rancho Cotate (3) (2-2)
No.  5 Montgomery (5) (2-2)
No.  6 St. Helena (7) (4-0)
No.  7 Maria Carrillo (6) (2-2)
No.  8 Casa Grande (0-4)
No.  9 Middletown (8) (3-1)
No.10 Ukiah (1-3)
No. 11 Petaluma (2-2)
No. 12 Cloverdale (9) (3-1)
No. 13 Santa Rosa (0-4)
No. 14 Fort Bragg (10) (3-1)
No. 15 Kelseyville (3-1)
No. 16 Piner (3-2)
No. 17 El Molino (3-2)
No. 18 Sonoma Valley (1-3)
No. 19 Clear Lake (3-1)
No. 20 Healdsburg (0-5)
No. 21 St. Vincent (0-4)
No. 22 Lower Lake (2-2)
No. 23 Willits (2-2)
No. 24 Tomales (3-1)
No. 25 Calistoga (0-4)
No. 26 Elsie Allen (0-5)
No. 27 Upper Lake (0-5)
These rankings are computer generated and all teams started the season with a zero.   There are no human emotions involved.  Record means a lot, but so does strength of schedule.   The strength of schedule is why some of the rankings might not make sense.
A win is a win and a loss is a loss no matter how one sided they are.   For example:   If Team A and Team B played the same schedule and were both 0-4 they would have the same rating even if Team A lost the four games by a combined six points and Team B lost the same games by a combined sixty six.
There are 109 teams in the North Coast Section and under this system the highest team is De La Salle with a rating of 83.  For comparison to get No. 1 in the local rankings Analy is at 28.
Nine of the twenty seven teams have positive numbers, the rest have a negative.  That isn’t too far away from the ratio of the section especially when you consider that eight teams each are in Division 4 and 5, which is over half the area teams.   For the section, fewer than 40% are in Division 4 and 5 and a ratio of one of four are positive.
Analy has a thin lead over Cardinal Newman for the top spot.  It is guessed that if the NBL champions go undefeated, that they will pass Analy in these rankings because of the power rankings of the remaining schedule.   In fact if both Analy and Cardinal Newman do win this week, Cardinal Newman will probably take over the No. 1 spot.
Casa Grande, with a rating of 27.4, has had the toughest schedule with Cardinal Newman second a little more than two points behind.
All eight team’s in the NBL and two in the SCL, schedule have a positive number.  According to the numbers Windsor had the easiest schedule in the NBL.  Healdsburg was the other team besides Analy that had a positive number for its schedule in the SCL.  According to the computer numbers, Healdsburg barely had a tougher schedule than Windsor.
Casa Grande’s schedule is so strong, that despite a 0-4 start they are in the top ten.   Healdsburg’s wasn’t strong enough to get them in the top twenty.
Ten of the twenty seven teams have a schedule with a positive number.
One of the big differences in the rankings and records is St. Vincent and Tomales.   St. Vincent despite its 0-4 start ranks three spots higher than Tomales who is 3-1.   That is because St. Vincent has had the toughest schedule of any team in the NCL World and just misses a positive number.   Tomales has the easiest schedule of any team on the list.
As far as the league’s go, as you might expect, the NBL has the highest power rankings of the four leagues.   It might surprise you that the NCL I is ranked one spot higher than the SCL.   The NCL II is the lowest ranked league in the state.
There are 109 teams in the North Coast Section with 57 of them with a positive ranking and 52 a negative.
There are 17 leagues in the North Coast Section with eight of them with a positive number and nine a negative.
That gives me some confidence in the numbers because it should be around 50-50.   When you pick out any game the winner and loser should move up and down about the same number.   The minor difference is that the games teams play from outside the section.
These numbers are used for playoff seedings.  The brain factor gets involved too.  The best example of where the brain would have a big factor if the playoffs started today is Windsor.  Yes, they had the easiest schedule in the NBL.  Windsor has treated the games as the easiest schedule outscoring opponents by an average of 25 points a game.   As mentioned above, the computer doesn’t take into consideration how much a team has won or lost its game by.   That is when the brain steps in.
Sometime the brain can overthink.  That leads to controversy.
BY THE WAY
The Press Democrat moved Windsor to No. 1 in their rankings dropping Analy to No. 2.
JC RANKINGS
SRJC 4-0 start gives them the No. 3 spot in Northern California.  To get to the State Final Four a No. 2 ranking is needed when the season ends.   No. 1 vs. No. 2 in Northern and Southern California each play in the semi-finals with the winners meeting in the state championship games.   Much like big time College Football there are other Bowl Games besides the Championship Bracket.   In the overall rankings SRJC stays at No. 4.
There is a lot to do between now and then.   For a beginning, after this week’s home game with Sequioas, the Bear Cubs start conference play at No. 1 San Mateo.
SRJC is in a new league this season which is called the Bay 6.   Four of the six teams (including SRJC) are ranked in the top ten in the state.
JC STAT UPDATE
The official numbers for the weekend are out.
Christian McAlvain threw for 305 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for two more.  On the season he has thrown ten touchdown passes and two interceptions.
Running back Desmond Nisby rushed for 148 yards on 32 carries and that doesn’t included the 52 yard screen pass he took for a touchdown.
It was the first game that Terrence Drew didn’t have a touchdown reception.   He still has six on the season which is tied for second in the state.
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